Number of observations

858

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Last update

June 24 2019

Success rate by treatment

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Success rate by stratum

Distribution across strata

Total number of observations

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	18	12	27	13
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	36	32	33	37
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0	3	2	1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	3	1	4	5
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	21	16	20	26
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	14	12	8	16
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1	1	2	1
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	2	0	0	1
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	15	17	21	29
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	24	54	36	32
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	6	4	2	1
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	9	8	8	11
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	27	30	18	20
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	10	24	13	9
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	11	8	10	3
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	5	6	10	9

Total number of successes

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	1	0	1	1
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	3	2	3	4
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0	0	0	0
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	1	1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	2	0	0	0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0	0	1	1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1	0	0	0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	0	0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0	0	0	3
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	1	6	6	4
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	1	3	0	0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	1	0	0	1
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0	2	1	0
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	2	3	3	0
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	1	1	1	0
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0	0	3	2

Success rates

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.06	0.00	0.04	0.08
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.08	0.06	0.09	0.11
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	NaN	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.20
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.10	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.06
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	NaN	NaN	0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.10
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.04	0.11	0.17	0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.17	0.75	0.00	0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.11	0.00	0.00	0.09
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.00	0.07	0.06	0.00
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.20	0.12	0.23	0.00
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.09	0.12	0.10	0.00
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.00	0.00	0.30	0.22

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.07	0.05	0.06	0.09
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.08	0.07	0.10	0.10
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.09	0.07	0.10	0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.09	0.14	0.12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.04
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.05	0.05	0.12	0.08
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.15	0.09	0.10	0.09
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.08	0.10	0.11	0.09
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.05	0.04	0.05	0.10
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.06	0.10	0.15	0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.11	0.26	0.10	0.09
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.10	0.05	0.07	0.09
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.04	0.07	0.08	0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.13	0.11	0.17	0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.09	0.10	0.10	0.08
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.07	0.06	0.19	0.14

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.26	0.12	0.20	0.41
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.19	0.12	0.31	0.38
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.26	0.18	0.30	0.26
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.11	0.16	0.42	0.31
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.60	0.13	0.17	0.11
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.09	0.10	0.55	0.26
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.43	0.17	0.21	0.19
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.18	0.25	0.34	0.24
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.12	0.09	0.12	0.66
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.03	0.16	0.56	0.25
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.12	0.69	0.10	0.09
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.35	0.12	0.19	0.34
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.07	0.36	0.43	0.13
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.27	0.17	0.52	0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.20	0.30	0.31	0.19
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.05	0.05	0.60	0.30

Current assignment probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	0.26	0.15	0.21	0.38
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	0.21	0.15	0.30	0.35
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	0.26	0.19	0.29	0.26
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.14	0.18	0.38	0.30
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	0.53	0.15	0.18	0.14
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	0.12	0.13	0.49	0.26
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	0.40	0.18	0.22	0.20
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.19	0.25	0.32	0.24
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	0.15	0.12	0.15	0.58
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	0.08	0.18	0.50	0.25
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	0.15	0.60	0.13	0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	0.33	0.15	0.20	0.32
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	0.11	0.34	0.39	0.16
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	0.26	0.18	0.47	0.09
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	0.21	0.29	0.30	0.20
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	0.09	0.09	0.53	0.29

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum	cash	information	psychological	control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.15)	(0.00, 0.13)	(0.01, 0.13)	(0.02, 0.19)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.03, 0.15)	(0.02, 0.14)	(0.04, 0.17)	(0.04, 0.18)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.01, 0.25)	(0.00, 0.21)	(0.01, 0.25)	(0.01, 0.23)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.20)	(0.00, 0.26)	(0.03, 0.33)	(0.03, 0.27)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp	(0.03, 0.18)	(0.00, 0.11)	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.00, 0.10)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.00, 0.13)	(0.03, 0.25)	(0.02, 0.17)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.03, 0.39)	(0.00, 0.25)	(0.01, 0.25)	(0.01, 0.23)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.21)	(0.00, 0.30)	(0.01, 0.31)	(0.01, 0.24)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.00, 0.11)	(0.00, 0.12)	(0.04, 0.18)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp	(0.01, 0.13)	(0.05, 0.17)	(0.07, 0.24)	(0.05, 0.20)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.25)	(0.07, 0.58)	(0.01, 0.25)	(0.01, 0.23)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp	(0.02, 0.21)	(0.00, 0.15)	(0.00, 0.17)	(0.02, 0.20)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp	(0.00, 0.09)	(0.02, 0.15)	(0.02, 0.17)	(0.00, 0.11)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp	(0.04, 0.27)	(0.04, 0.21)	(0.06, 0.31)	(0.00, 0.16)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp	(0.02, 0.19)	(0.02, 0.24)	(0.02, 0.22)	(0.01, 0.20)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp	(0.00, 0.17)	(0.00, 0.17)	(0.07, 0.36)	(0.04, 0.28)

90% credible sets, plotted

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.029, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.013. \end{align*}\]

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.01)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.07)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.04, 0.07) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.01, 0.07)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.03, 0.06) \end{align*}\]